Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots Preview and Prediction

Where and when

The Pats are at home for the second week in a row. This week they face the Atlanta Falcons at Gillette Stadium at 1 p.m. EST, Sunday November 2nd, live on CBS/WBZ and on 98.5 FM The Sports Hub radio.

Previous meeting and all-time record

The Pats and Falcons have met 16 times in their history, including one postseason matchup where Atlanta cruised to their first Lombardi Trophy, or at least thought they did, but football is 4 quarters, not 3, the Pats collected their fifth title that day with a 25 point comeback in a quarter and change, winning with an OT TD drive. One of the games cited by crybabies when they changed the rule to give both teams possession regardless if the first team scores a TD.

The Pats lead the series 16-10, and haven't lost to Atlanta since all the way back to 8th November 1998. So far back, Drake Maye wasn't even born yet, Tom Brady was in college, and Drew Bledsoe was the starting QB for New England. Last time out was the 18th of November 2021 where the Pats humiliated the Falcons 25-0 in Atlanta. The last game at Gillette was back in October 2017 where the Patriots won 23-7. 

History might mean very little on any given Sunday but are Atlanta due a win against New England, or will the Pats continue their win streak both against Atlanta and on the season?

What and who to watch for

Patriots are the 10th best offense in the league by yards - 2,825 yards total which puts them 353.1 yards per game. Pats rank 5th in the league for points scored with 213 points after 8 games, meaning they have scored 26.6 points per game and by that metric they are the 8th best offensive team in the league. Atlanta are the 5th worst team offensively by points per game, third worst team by total points scored, they rank 14th in the league on yards per game, and 21st in total yards. Atlanta are poor in most metrics offensively while the Pats perform well in most metrics regarding offensive ability.

Atlanta's fortunes are much greater on the defensive side of the ball. They are the second best team in the league by yards allowed per game and total yards allowed, 11th in total points against, and 13th in points allowed per game. The Pats are 15th in total yards against, 9th in yards against per game, 6th in total points against, and 4th in points against per game. So, in short, two good defenses although I personally put more stock into teams who are better statistically by points than yards because at the end of the day, points wins games, a team could give up 300 yards a game but if the opponent is kicking field goals, the yards means little.

Coaching

Head Coach Mike Vrabel has reinstated an identity synonymous with New England built around defensive discipline and offensive balance. Meanwhile, the Falcons are struggling to regain consistency after a two-game losing streak, and they’ll need to deliver a much sharper performance to upset one of the AFC’s hottest teams. Historically, the Patriots have dominated this rivalry, winning the last six regular-season meetings, including several decisive defensive showings. Coaching will be a vital factor and I think the Pats have a far better coaching staff.

Mike Vrabel’s Patriots have been described as “fundamentally fast,” emphasizing execution, physicality, and situational football. On the other sideline, Atlanta’s staff must find ways to spark a stagnant offense while protecting the football. Turnovers, third-down efficiency, and special teams play could all tip the scale. If New England wins the time of possession battle and limits explosive plays, their defense could suffocate the Falcons’ rhythm.

Offensive production

The Patriots’ passing attack, led by second year quarterback Drake Maye. The young signal caller has been efficient and poised in recent weeks, throwing multiple touchdowns and showing improved command of the offense, fewer mistakes and turnovers, and proving he's a proper dual threat by hurting teams in the passing game and taking off using his feet to gain yards. My only concern about Drake is that sometimes he tries to get more out of a play than it's worth, and this could mean he takes hits which potentially could lead to an injury, especially that whack he took to the head off the turf against Tennessee. He’ll face one of the toughest tests yet against an Atlanta defense that currently ranks near second in the league in pass defense. The Falcons’ secondary has limited big plays and forced opponents to rely on short, conservative routes. This creates an intriguing chess match between Maye’s ability to stretch the field and Atlanta’s preference for zone coverage designed to take away deep shots. If Maye and the Pats can establish an early rhythm through the air, it could open up their running game and keep the Falcons’ pass rush off balance.

For Atlanta, the spotlight will be on star running back Bijan Robinson, who remains their most dynamic offensive weapon. Robinson’s combination of agility and receiving ability makes him a threat in both the ground and passing game. Yet, he faces a daunting challenge in a Patriots defense that ranks second in the league against the run, allowing only around 76 rushing yards per game. If Atlanta struggles to move the ball on the ground, quarterback play will become crucial, and given New England’s tight coverage and aggressive front seven, that’s a tall order. Establishing Robinson early will be vital for Atlanta to control tempo and open passing lanes.

Pats defensive stoutness

New England’s defensive stoutness will be absolutely crucial in this game against the Falcons, as it forms the backbone of New England’s identity under head coach Mike Vrabel. Ranked among the league’s best in total defense and second against the run, the Patriots have consistently shut down opposing ground attacks. A key factor when facing a versatile runner like Bijan Robinson. By controlling the line of scrimmage and forcing Atlanta into predictable passing situations, the Pats can dictate the flow of the game and allow its aggressive front seven to pressure the quarterback. The defense’s ability to stay disciplined in gap assignments and tackle efficiently will also limit explosive plays, something the Falcons rely on to generate momentum. If the Patriots’ defense continues its stingy form, holding Atlanta to minimal rushing success and creating turnovers, it will not only neutralize the Falcons’ offensive rhythm but also set up favorable field position for Drake Maye and the offense. The defense could even potentially chip in with a defensive score like they have in multiple games this season.

Predictions and favourites

Most analysts lean toward a Patriots victory, predicting a close but controlled game, something in the range of 24–20 or 27–20. Ultimately, the outcome will likely hinge on two questions: can Bijan Robinson overcome New England’s elite rush defense, and can Drake Maye maintain composure against Atlanta’s opportunistic secondary? If the Patriots answer both in their favor, they should continue their winning ways and further cement their status as a legitimate AFC contender.

The Pats enter the game as favourites, with most bookies expecting them to win by around 4.5 points, with an over/under of 45.5 points. I personally am predicting a continuation of a strong defensive performance while also seeing another productive day for the Patriots' offense. Cleveland entered last week as the NFL's strongest defense and while they managed to sack Maye 5 times, they only scored 13 points and the Patriots made light work of dealing with them. I think Atlanta are more rounded and will provide a tougher test but this Pats team is up for it. My prediction: Atlanta 14 - New England 35. Go Pats!