Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Prediction & Preview

When and where

The Pats are back from their bye week and at home at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough for the second game in a row. The game kicks off at 1pm EST and you can watch it live on CBS/WBZ and listen on 98.5 FM The Sports Hub radio.

Previous meetings and all-time record

Pats lead the series 80-51-1 through 132 meetings. Last time out was only a couple of months ago when the sides met on October 5th in week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, where the Patriots came out on top 23-20 owing to a Borregales 52 yard field goal with fifteen ticks left in the fourth quarter. The last meeting in Foxborough was last season's finale where the Pats came out 23-16 victors, although Buffalo played mostly second stringers and were secured as the two-seed in the playoffs. Before that, the Pats hadn't beaten the Bills since October 2023. Indeed, a win may not be overdue, but a win Sunday likely means more than any win we have had against Buffalo in quite a while.

Who and what to look out for

A win over Buffalo this week would cap a milestone-rich season for Pats, delivering the team's 22nd division title since 1970, its 29th playoff appearance overall, and its 14th 12-win season (third-most in the NFL since 1970). The victory would also clinch the AFC East title, complete a sweep of Buffalo, extend the winning streak to 11 games (the third-longest single-season streak in team history), and preserve a historic run of 10 straight games scoring at least 23 points while allowing 23 or fewer (presuming we win by scoring 23+ and conceding fewer than 23).

The Pats are in a decent position to end a prolonged, hurtful, and wretched New England famine of AFC East titles or postseason berths by defeating the Bills on Sunday, marking a potential return to familiar territory after dominating the division from 2001–19. New England last won the AFC East in 2019, Tom Brady’s final season with the franchise, and has since watched Buffalo claim five straight division crowns while reaching one measly AFC championship game, and they have the gall to claim this is a purple patch? Pfft.

Now 11-2 and riding a 10-game winning streak that includes an earlier victory over Buffalo, the Patriots embrace the underdog role at home, a mindset echoed by coach Mike Vrabel, quarterback Drake Maye, and former Bills receiver Stefon Diggs as fuel for a roster eager to prove itself. It seems odd to say the Pats need to prove anything, after 11 wins, but beating Buffalo twice, reclaiming the division, and remaining in the hunt for the conference's top seed, would put the league on notice that the easy schedule talk is nonsense.

In his first season with the team, head coach Mike Vrabel would join rare company with an 11-game winning streak and earn his third career division title, while also posting his second 12-win season as a head coach. Sophomore Quarterback Drake Maye enters the week leading the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%) and ranking second in passing yards, with a chance to reach 25 touchdown passes and further etch his name among elite Pats passers. Veteran Tight End Hunter Henry is on course for a career-high receiving season. First year Patriot OLB Harold Landry has the opportunity to reach double-digit sacks for the third time in his career.

The special teams unit are also chasing some history, Marcus Jones could help the Pats become the first team in franchise history to record punt-return touchdowns in back-to-back games. Linebacker Christian Elliss is also chasing a rare accomplishment; if he records at least three special-teams tackles against Buffalo, he would join only one other Patriot this season to do so in consecutive games, and no New England Patriots player has posted four special-teams tackles in back-to-back games since 2000. The Pats special teams and defense continue to chase historic benchmarks, underscoring the breadth and balance of New England’s 2025 campaign.

Buffalo, meanwhile, remains focused on playoff positioning, with Josh Allen stressing preparation over hype while acknowledging the challenge of facing a team playing at a high level in a hostile environment. The matchup also highlights the developing comparison between Maye and Allen, with Vrabel praising both quarterbacks’ competitive traits while recognizing Allen’s veteran excellence. As Buffalo leans on Allen’s proven ability to excel against elite opponents and a defense coming off back-to-back return touchdowns, New England looks to benefit from the return of left guard Jared Wilson to stabilize an offensive line tasked with protecting Maye after earlier struggles against the Bills’ pass rush.

Predictions and favourites

The Bills are slight favourites on the road. Spread: Buffalo -1.5 (-105) & New England +1.5 (-115). Moneyline: Buffalo -118 & New England +100. Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) & Under 49.5 (-110). A lot of analysts are picking Buffalo, but no one I have seen is calling this game to be decided by more than one score. Which is probably accurate but I would still like the Pats to show the league they are the real deal and take care of business without much fuss. I think the Pats will do it. I'm taking them 31-24 with Drake Maye finally throwing for a 300 yard game. Go Pats!