Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Prediction & Preview

When and where

The Pats face the formidable challenge of the Houston Texans in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. The game kicks off at 3pm EST and you can watch it live on ESPN / ABC / WCVB CH5 and listen on 98.5 FM The Sports Hub radio.

Previous meetings and all-time record

The Pats and the Texans have faced each other 15 times all time, including two playoff matchups. New England leads the series 11-4 with a perfect 2-0 record in the postseason. Houston won the most recent matchup in a 41-21 blowout in Foxborough in week 6 of the 2024 season. The most recent Patriots win was a 25-22 victory in 2021. In the postseason, the Pats have won both meetings convincingly. Interestingly, both divisional games in Foxborough where New England were victors 41-28 and 34-16 in 2012 and 2016, respectively.

Who and what to look out for

The Patriots enter the divisional round riding a historically strong defensive performance. Their 16–3 win over the Chargers tied a franchise playoff low for points allowed and marked the sixth time New England has held an opponent to three points or fewer in the postseason. The Patriots now have a chance to post back-to-back playoff games without allowing a touchdown for the first time since the 1996 postseason, when they shut down Pittsburgh and Jacksonville en route to the AFC Championship Game.

This week’s game will be the Patriots’ 61st postseason appearance. Last weekend’s victory was their 38th playoff win, and a win against Houston would give New England 39, tying the San Francisco 49ers for the most postseason victories in NFL history. The Patriots are also seeking to improve to 3–0 all-time against the Texans in postseason matchups.

Head coach Mike Vrabel is coaching in the postseason for the fourth time and for the third time as a division champion. Across his head-coaching career with Tennessee and New England, Vrabel has led teams to multiple playoff appearances and division titles. He enters this game with a 3–3 postseason record and can move above .500 while earning his second trip to the AFC Championship Game as a head coach.

Individually, Stefon Diggs continues to climb postseason leaderboards. With 71 catches for 925 yards and four touchdowns in 15 playoff games, Diggs is closing in on 1,000 career postseason receiving yards and the top 10 in postseason receptions. He also has four career 100-yard playoff games and needs one more to join an elite group. Among current Patriots, Diggs has the most postseason experience, followed by cornerback Carlton Davis III.

Defensively, Milton Williams and K’Lavon Chaisson headline a pass rush making history. Williams has recorded two sacks in back-to-back postseason games, putting him in rare company league-wide, while Chaisson could join him with another two-sack performance this week. Off the field, owner Robert Kraft continues to build his legacy, entering the game with 34 postseason wins, third-most in NFL history, and closing in on the all-time leaders.

Predictions and favourites

The Pats ended a 7-year drought of a playoff victory last week. There is an element of my thinking about the 2025 season that it doesn't matter what happens from here on out; we are in bonus territory, and even if we go out, the season has overall been a success. Most analysts I have seen have picked Houston, which is fine because their defense alone is good enough to drag them over the line if we do not keep the ball safe. The bookies have the Pats as three-point favorites. Personally, the game comes down to a few things: turnovers, how much success the Pats can have versus the league's top defense, and how the Pats' OL can hold up to give Drake Maye a chance. Don't turn the ball over, find some success to move the ball downfield, and keep Maye from being mauled by the Houston front-seven, and we will be in good shape. I'm predicting a nervy, hard-fought, defensive game. The Pats edge this one. Texans 20, Patriots 24. Go Pats!