Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Prediction & Preview

When and where

The Pats' final game of the 2025 regular season is a divisional showdown in Foxborough against the Miami Dolphins. The game kicks off at 4:25pm EST and you can watch it live on FOX/WFXT and listen on 98.5 FM The Sports Hub radio.

Previous meetings and all-time record

New England has faced Miami 120 times all time, including three postseason games, the Pats lead the series 64-56. The last time out was the Patriots' week 2 33-27 win in Miami. The last game in Foxborough was a low-scoring 15-10 Patriots loss on October 6th, 2024. The last matchup between the clubs in Foxborough, in which New England came out on top, was the 2022 season finale on January 1st, 2023, a 23-21 Pats win.

Who and what to look out for

The Patriots enter the regular-season finale at 13–3 with a chance to complete one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NFL history. A win over Miami would give New England a 14–3 record, representing a 10-game improvement over its 4–13 finish in 2024, tying the 1999 Colts and 2008 Dolphins for the largest year-over-year win increase ever. With a victory and a Denver loss to the Chargers, the Patriots would also secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye. Since 2001, New England has earned an NFL-best 13 postseason byes, including seven times as the top seed.

The matchup also carries significant historical implications within the Patriots–Dolphins rivalry. A win would give New England its 11th season series sweep of Miami and its first since 2016. The teams are meeting in the regular-season finale for the 18th time, and for the first time since 2021, with games in New England historically split evenly at 4–4. Reaching 14 wins would mark the sixth time in franchise history that the Patriots have achieved at least 14 victories in a season.

On the field, the Patriots have been among the league’s most balanced teams. Defensively, they are allowing just 19.4 points per game, fifth-best in the NFL, and are on pace to finish under 20 points allowed for the 15th time since 2001. Offensively, New England ranks fourth in the league with 53 total touchdowns, the fifth-highest total in franchise history, and has 18 rushing touchdowns, needing two more to reach 20 for the first time since 2021.

Several individual milestones are also in reach. Head coach Mike Vrabel could become just the third coach in NFL history to win 14 games in a season, joining George Seifert and Jim Caldwell. Quarterback Drake Maye leads the NFL with a 71.7 completion percentage, which would be the best single-season mark in Patriots history and the sixth-best in league history. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson needs 70 rushing yards to move into fifth place on the team’s all-time rushing list, while safety Brenden Schooler is one special teams tackle away from setting a new career high.

The passing game has been highlighted by wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who leads the team with 970 receiving yards and needs 30 more to record his seventh career 1,000-yard season, the first by a Patriot since 2019. Diggs has already recorded five 100-yard games this year and could become the first New England player since 2011 to post six in a season. Tight end Hunter Henry needs 83 receiving yards to reach 3,000 for his Patriots career, while linebacker Harold Landry III needs 1½ sacks to reach double-digit sacks for the third time. Kicker Andy Borregales is four field goals shy of a 30-field-goal rookie season, a rare achievement in franchise and league history.

Predictions and favourites

This game comes down to a couple of things. Drake Maye's ability to avoid having a disaster to secure his MVP award, and the Pats keeping mistakes to a minimum, if those two things happen, it will be relatively straightforward for New England. Pats are heavy favorites and most analysts have picked New England also. My prediction is Pats 27, Dolphins 21. Go Pats!