New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Preview and Prediction

Last week, I noted that it was hard to believe a week 4 matchup was "season defining". It was, and the team passed with flying colours. But this week poses a different, much greater challenge. This is the game I isolated from before the season as the first game where we will find out what our team is about, are they made of something, do they have the required substance. Buffalo sit alone at the top of the AFC and are arguably the league's best team, and if not, certainly in the top two. I'm not expecting the Pats to win, but I do expect them to show competitiveness and signals of a serious football team.

 

Where to watch

 

The Patriots are on the road for the second time this season facing the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium at 8:20 p.m. EST, Sunday October 5th. The game is live on NBC-NBC 10 and on 98.5 FM The Sports Hub radio.

 

Last time out and series record

The Pats won last time out in what was as good as a dead rubber owing to the Bills having secured the second seed in the NFL playoffs. Pats were 23-16 victors on January 5th, 2025. The last time New England won in Buffalo was the remarkable running onslaught that had the Pats only attempting 3 passes the entire game, but with over 200 yards running and winning 14-10 on December 6th, 2021. The pair have met in 131 games and the Pats hold the lead 79-51-1.

 

What to look out for

Pats top 3 for rush yards allowed while bills are the league's best run team by yards gained. Big test for our team.

 

A Pats win means it's a shootout for the AFC East determined by record and not head to head, assuming we lost the second game

 

ST involvement crucial - Marcus Jones 87 yard punt return TD CAR – Antonio Gibson 90 yard kickoff return TD MIA. Need contributions from this unit.

 

Diggs & Henry combo – yards 213 and 204 respectively and Stevenson clleaned up fumbles

 

Maye looks elite – leads league in completion % 74% - 5th in yards/game - 6tth overall yards 988 – 5th in rating at 109.4 - benind very elite talent such as Lamar/Allen/Herbert and ahead of Hurts in most categories.

 

Gonzo – need him firing on all cylinders after K'Lavon Chaisson and safety Jaylinn Hawkins injuries.

 

Odds and prediction

The Bills are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7.5). The expected point total for the matchup is set at 50.5.

 

I think the Pats will give this game a very good shot but I can't see them winning it. Bills win 33-28.