Patriots: How the Patriots Are Going to Win Tonight and Who is Going To Help Them Do It

The Patriots enter Sunday night’s Wild Card game against the Chargers in a very different place than their recent playoff appearances. In 2019 and 2021, New England limped into the postseason after poor finishes, but this year, they arrive with momentum, having lost only once since mid-September and finishing the regular season on a three-game winning streak that included a comeback against Baltimore and dominant wins over the Jets and Dolphins. Their 4–1 post-Thanksgiving record is their best late-season stretch in years and puts them among the hottest teams in the AFC.

The Chargers, by contrast, are not nearly as hot. They finished with four straight wins after their bye but then lost their final two games, including a Week 17 defeat that cost them a shot at the division. That loss led them to rest starters in Week 18. While momentum favors New England, Mike Vrabel emphasized that the playoffs reset everything, shifting the focus to how the teams actually match up on the field.

One of the most important matchups is a “weakness-on-weakness” battle between the Patriots’ inconsistent pass rush and the Chargers’ injury-ravaged offensive line. New England has generated pressure at a respectable rate overall but has struggled without blitzing and has been hit hard by injuries. The Chargers are in worse shape up front, with both starting tackles on injured reserve, leaving Justin Herbert under pressure more than any quarterback in the league. Herbert’s performance drops significantly when pressured, and he has also struggled with ball security since injuring his non-throwing hand, making this a potential turning point if the Patriots can get to him without blitzing.

To put Herbert in those vulnerable passing situations, the Patriots must first stop the run. The Chargers have been only a middling rushing team, but they are capable of success on the edges and may lean more on the run in the playoffs. Injuries to Chargers running backs, particularly first-round pick Omarion Hampton, could limit that approach, which would further tilt the game toward New England’s pass-rush opportunity.

When the Patriots have the ball, it becomes a strength-on-strength matchup. New England’s passing attack, led by Drake Maye, faces one of the league’s better pass defenses. The Chargers are strong at all three levels, anchored by elite safety Derwin James and a deep edge-rushing group led by Tuli Tuipulotu. However, their cornerback group is banged up, and if starters are limited, the Patriots may find openings for deep shots to receivers like Kyle Williams and Pop Douglas.

Turnovers could be the biggest swing factor in the game. The Chargers’ defense is excellent at taking the ball away, but their offense has been careless, especially late in the season. The Patriots, on the other hand, have protected the football well on offense but have not forced many turnovers defensively. If New England continues to take care of the ball while Herbert and the Chargers commit mistakes, the Patriots gain a significant edge. If the game becomes turnover-heavy, it favors Los Angeles.

Finally, special teams strongly favor the Patriots. The Chargers rank near the bottom of the league in both return production and coverage, while New England features one of the most dangerous return men in Marcus Jones. Even if Los Angeles schemes to limit him, that could still improve the Patriots’ field position, and one big return could swing the game. In a playoff matchup expected to be tight, that hidden yardage could be decisive.

Patriots to watch out for

At the top of the list is quarterback Drake Maye, who is coming off an MVP-caliber regular season but now faces his toughest challenge yet. The Chargers have one of the NFL’s best pass defenses, especially against deep throws, making it critical for Maye to be sharp, decisive, and disciplined in a high-pressure playoff environment.

Up front, left tackle Will Campbell will be tested heavily. He returned from injured reserve last week and now must protect Maye against a deep and dangerous Chargers pass-rush group led by Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack, and Odafe Oweh. With those rushers frequently switching sides, Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses will both need to be ready for constant pressure from elite edge defenders.

On defense, defensive tackle Milton Williams is a potential difference-maker. After returning from injured reserve, his presence strengthens the entire Patriots defensive line, especially alongside Christian Barmore. With the Chargers’ offensive line dealing with injuries and inconsistency, Williams’ ability to collapse the pocket and disrupt both the run and pass game could be pivotal in containing Justin Herbert.

Linebacker Robert Spillane also returns at a crucial time after missing several weeks with an ankle injury. As both a top run defender and a key communicator, Spillane brings leadership and stability to the Patriots’ defense. Against a talented Chargers offense, his instincts and ability to organize the defense could quietly have a major impact.

In the secondary, cornerback Carlton Davis III will be looking to bounce back after a difficult Week 18 performance against Miami. He will be tasked with covering Chargers stars like Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston and must quickly put the regular season behind him as the playoffs bring a clean slate and heightened urgency.

Finally, Marcus Jones will be critical in defending the slot, particularly against Ladd McConkey, who torched the Patriots in their previous meeting last season. Jones has played the best defensive football of his career this year, and his matchup with McConkey could go a long way toward determining whether the Patriots can slow down Herbert’s favorite inside target and control the middle of the field.