Pats have a real chance at the AFC's top seed

The New England Patriots are in a strong position to reclaim the AFC East title for the first time since 2019. After defeating the Buffalo Bills 23-20 in Week 5 and securing a key head-to-head advantage, they extended their lead with a 28-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Bills fell to the Miami Dolphins.

As a result, the Patriots now hold a 1.5-game lead over Buffalo, with their AFC East title odds jumping to 86% (up from 60%) and playoff chances rising to over 99%, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for best in the league. They also have a 43% chance of earning a first-round bye — higher than any other team.

Despite these improvements, New England has dropped from second to third in the AFC standings due to tiebreakers: their 4-2 conference record trails the Colts (6-1) and Broncos (5-2). With a primetime matchup against the Jets ahead, head coach Mike Vrabel’s team remains in control of its divisional destiny halfway through the season.